Psephologist of the Psephologists – Yogendra Yadav has the Last Laugh
When every other psephologist, analyst, expert and what have you, were surfing the waves of uncertainty, predicting a 350-400 seat share for the National Democratic Alliance [NDA] one man stood out with a completely different prediction. That man is none other than the controversial psephologist, Yogendra Yadav, who predicted with almost pinpoint accuracy that the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] will fall short of 250 seats as per top 10 Hindi samachar news.
Interestingly though, this is just one of the very few occasions when Yadav’s prediction came true and even if you think he merely rode his luck with his prediction this time, you got to give credit where it is due.
I have never been a fan of Yadav’s brand of left wing and self-righteous politics and less so, his election analysis, which used to be quite poor most of the time but not this time – because he hit bull’s eye!
I also don’t think that this time he merely fired a number in the air and was lucky to score a direct hit. This time he had access to solid ground level feed and that helped him make such an amazing prediction as per top 10 news today in Hindi.
Quantum shift of Mayavati’s vote share to INDI Alliance in UP
There may be no single reason for the huge dent to the BJP’s tally of Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh [UP] but it is also a fact that among all the reasons there are a couple that are bigger than the other reasons.
That first major reason is the quantum shift of the votes of Mayavati’s Bahujan Samaj Party [BSP] to the INDI Alliance partners Samajwadi Party [SP] and Congress party.
BSP had a vote share of 19.5 % in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and that formidable figure has fallen by around 52% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as per top 10 Hindi samachar news.
The bulk of this 52% vote share that the BSP lost, has gone to the INDI Alliance and increased their vote share exponentially. Yadav was apparently aware of this tectonic shift in UP’s voting pattern and drew part of his conclusions from this development.
Undercurrent of strong differences among Sangh Parivar segments
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh [RSS] leadership as well as rank and file across most parts of the country are quite annoyed with the BJP leadership for trying to sideline the RSS.
Ground level reports do suggest that in certain major states like UP, Maharashtra and Bengal, the RSS is more than annoyed and it won’t be wrong to say that they are actually irate at the arrogant behaviour the BJP central leadership.
In Bengal for instance, Dilip Ghosh, an RSS leader, who guided the BJP to the position of the main opposition party in the state, has been sidelined according to the top 10 Hindi samachar news.
Similar resentment of the RSS rank and file over the BJP’s central leadership have come from Maharashtra and UP as well as some other major states.
Yogendra Yadav apparently is clued up with such details simply because of where he comes from – the left-wing eco-system, which keeps a close eye on developments in the right wing. It would be a mistake to brush aside his pinpoint prediction of the BJPs numbers in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It is now for the BJP to do an introspection about what went wrong and where and how soon it can fix the issue. Friction with the RSS is not an option for the BJP and neither is over reliance on the Modi magic because he won’t be around for much longer but the RSS will continue.
Source: Times Content
